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Prop Firm Probability Calculator

Enter your base trading stats and select your evaluation parameters to see exactly how likely you are to pass. This tool runs 10,000 simulated equity curves based on your risk per trade, win rate, and R:R to give you the unvarnished mathematical truth.

Probability Calculator

Free to Use

Run a Monte Carlo simulation across 10,000+ equity curves per second to find your real odds of getting funded.

Your Stats

Challenge Parameters

Advanced: Tilt Settings

Simulate performance degradation during tilt by applying a win rate penalty and reducing your Reward-to-Risk (RR) when triggers are hit.

Trigger Conditions
Simulation parameters that trigger a 'tilted' state, where your trading performance (Win Rate and RR) degrades due to emotional factors.
Losing Streak
Triggers 'tilt' after a set number of consecutive losses. This simulates the breakdown of discipline and 'chasing' behavior that often follows a series of bad results.
losses
% in Drawdown
Activates a performance penalty when your account drawdown reaches this percentage of your max limit. Reflects the increased pressure as you get closer to blowing an account.
% Used
Revenge Trading
The probability that any single loss immediately triggers an impulsive, high-risk trade to 'get even', leading to worse Win Rate and RR stats on the following trade.
% after loss
Overconfidence
The danger of success. After a winning streak, there is a probability that you become reckless, thinking your setup is 'invincible' and ignoring risk parameters.
% chance
FOMO Trading
Fear Of Missing Out. A random chance that you take an unplanned trade without a setup, fearing the market will leave you behind. These trades typically have poor execution.
% chance
Boredom Trading
Simulates the risk of over-trading when the market is slow. A random probability of taking low-quality setups just to feel active in the market.
% chance
Ready to run simulation

How the Monte Carlo Simulation Works

A Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical technique used to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted due to the intervention of random variables. In trading, your next trade's outcome is random, but over a large set of trades, your edge (win rate and risk-to-reward ratio) dictates your results.

When you hit "Run 10,000 Iterations", the calculator literally trades an imaginary account 10,000 times following your exact rules. It subjects each account to standard peak-to-trough sequence risk. If the account's drawdown ever exceeds the prop firm's limit, it fails. If the account hits the profit target first, it passes.

Why You Need to Know This

Most traders severely underestimate sequence of return risk (the chance of hitting an unlucky losing streak before your edge plays out). You might have a profitable strategy, but if your stop loss is too wide or you risk too much per trade, a normal 5-trade losing streak could breach a $2,000 drawdown limit on a 50k evaluation.

Ready to execute with iron discipline?

The math proves that risk management is everything. TradeGuard helps you automatically lock your screen the moment you break your daily loss limit or try to move your stop loss. Don't let tilt destroy your statistical edge.

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